It's not just that he knows, but that he uses that knowledge to pick a door instead of choosing a door at random.
But yeah, that the problem is moot if it were random is exactly my point.
I was deceived by the wording and it's frustrating to hear "answers" to this problem that ignore that deception because I got the wrong answer and so I feel "dumb" for being decieved so I am trying to defend how i'm not "dumb" for not seeing the probability, just dumb for not thinking through the fact that it would be unlikely for Monty to reveal a car at that point.
I guess a lot of people go "oh, he won't reveal a car".
