There will be a cliff in the number of people in this industry. There will be a bunch of senior people floating around the job market and no more junior talent. There will be fewer new grads and the pipelines will dry up.
If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.
I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch
What are your opinions on accepting junior talent say, 4 years from now?
Would there be any changes because I feel like a lot of junior talent isnt picked because of AI but I feel like given a long enough timescope, AI bubble will burst and so taking that into account, what would you say about the job market?
Unless there is an exponential growth in model context AI is not replacing anything. So far every new model launches with some increase in advertised intelligence, but only with increasingly dubious ways to measure the same.
All the current crop of AI does is it makes the job of some people easier and allows some others to level up faster in terms output. If managements are going to be stupid enough to destroy the human side of the business, then they are only setting themselves up to spend much much more hiring the right people in the future.
I don't think the "bubble will burst" in the sense that all of this tooling will go away. Maybe companies shift the focus on running them more efficiently.
I don't think companies will suddenly turn over a new leaf and start hiring juniors like they were in 2020. Even if they tried, within 2 or 3 years they won't be able to as easily.
Fewer people will major in a field where there's some shrieking news headline every 5 seconds about how it's going to get automated out of existence. And the candidate quality will go down, since why bother leetcoding or reading a bunch of textbooks to upskill if there's no ROI associated with it.
If I was an undergrad right now, I totally wouldn't. And I wouldn't have read all of the books that I suffered through to develop understanding. Choosing a major is just betting on the future.
I just don't think that AI will get any better, its basically become a benchmaxxing contest of sorts and I think one of the issues I have with this is that when companies realize that this is the AI that we are gonna get, like sure it can be beneficial for some people but people (seniors atleast) want autonomy of their code and they would most likely use it as a code review and I have heard many instances where seniors are tired of reading junior ai generated code
I think that this is going to continue and although AI can be good for proto-typing ideas and similar (which is mainly what I use it for), in my opinion, I feel like AI is still black magic where everyone is winging it but I feel like the way AI is right now (generate all code sort of) would lead to more bugs and issues and just frustration by seniors overall
There have been studies where companies who use AI lose money
Companies who generate AI lose money in training costs/others
There are studies where people who use AI actually lose productivity
There are many anecdotal evidences that seniors dont like to waste time on ai generated slop code to code review
So in a sense, this would be a tool which can have vast productivity differences, people might want to get the speed but I feel like that when these bubble bursts and these companies give the real prices of their tooling which can be a lot in my opinion. I feel like a lot of companies will see even more losses/ its not that good overall
As I have said within the 2020's the interest rate was down so people hired more and there was already a hiring freeze of sorts when interest rates were raised
I feel like 4-5 years down the line, interest rates can go down again and with all the other AI things seeping into reality/market corrections overall, I feel like there can be cases where using AI can panic the market and lose stock prices and so with all the other factors, I feel like employment will go up again
To be honest, I dont know too much about employment, I feel like its similar to mathematics in a sense but I read books on finance and so my honest opinion is that the goal of being financially independent is to do the work that you like and I genuinely enjoy doing this work for the most part and so no matter how much it pays (which I assume to be honest would be good enough for me considering I live in third world country and I am frugal anyways) plus with all the other factors, i am pretty optimistic. I am also optimistic that I can create my own businesses much rather easily by prototyping multiple ideas with LLM generated code and then locking in on those which have a market fit to gain a sustainable cash cow. I will do these things when I get into university and then 4 years down the line, I do think that I can find something which can hopefully click but I still might do a job.
In my opinion, the companies not hiring right now are gonna cause an higher issue down the line and I am confident that no matter what, I just wanna do the thing I like as a job and there are other opinions on this matter (see other comment) which are optimistic down 4-5 years and I share that opinion
This program was so good, I was most of the way through it before it managed to help me land a better job. But now I have no idea if I'll ever finish it because it's pretty time consuming
The best two classes are AOS and HPC imo. Very grateful to Profs Ramachandran and Vuduc
AOS (and its prerequisite) gives a really strong foundation for working on infrastructure.
HPC pushed me farther than any other class I've done, it's very unique, helped me land my current gig
> Seeing it as a book about psychology that revolves around theological themes, when it is a book about theology that revolves around psychological themes.
I don't think Dostoevsky's Christianity is genuine. It feels about as genuine as Hegel's Christianity. To both of them it's just a convenient prop where their actual ideas take center stage
Every nihilist main character that he writes follows this pattern where they do something really bad, then destroy themselves as some kind of act of penance. This is the only way that conversion happens in his books. But in this case, it's obviously just a way of processing guilt (and reenacting the author's trauma from near execution most likely)
Maybe I'm psychologizing religion too much, but I don't think religious belief is genuine if it's rooted in some kind of (obvious) psychological trauma
The one thing that stands out in Dostoevsky is the psychological depth of the characters, especially in Demons
That is very interesting to read as I view him as very genuinely Christian. I would not agree with your description of the nihlist characters.
I see it that mostly the (self)destructive acts are earlier nihilist actions and only then after facing and having accepted the consequences, the repentance emerges like in Crime and Punishment. The ones that stay nihilistic and don’t repent at all still face destruction.
I tend to agree with bayareapsycho that Dostoyevsky doesn't feel genuinely christian. In his books God is derived out of ultimate necessity, it's the only sane way to survive. If you follow that line of thought you can come to a conclusion that if God didn't exist people would have to invent him. And if that's the case then maybe they DID invent him after all. It's just that it doesn't matter.
Dostoyevsky himself never goes that far in his books but I feel that the direction is set pretty clearly. It could be that I'm reading my thoughts into his works though.
So what counts as a genuine Christian in your view?
I can agree with that his books often suggest that God is the only sane way to survive, but I don‘t agree that this reduces him to only a useful necessity.
Ironically the conclusion you are making aligns very closely with what the Grand Inquisitor is preaching to Christ. And as the Grand Inquisitor is Ivan’s story, and not a plot in the book, I feel like Dostoyevsky is tackling that exact topic very prominently in the book on multiple levels. Especially through the response of the kiss.
> So what counts as a genuine Christian in your view?
I assumed that among other things it requires just accepting that God exists whether we need him or not. The practicality of having God around seems off to me, but in the end I'm not a genuine Christian myself so it's hard to judge.
The funniest thing about events like this is that they're targeted pretty much exclusively to men, but there are plenty of women who'd be more than happy to fish in a pod full of rich guys
So the poly chicks who are running this thing are really just gatekeeping a bunch of rich simps. The "serious" monogamous women have to be kept out or they'll lose their clientele pretty quick
I agree with the sentiment of this but I don't think the root issue is state involvement
The root issue is that the state is involved in the wrong way. It refuses to fund childcare, so marriage is economically incentivized.
But then it makes divorce super financially one-sided and easy to get, so now high earners will try to avoid marriage. But high earners are the ones who make marriage worthwhile, per the above point
Then it has LGBT acceptance in urban centers now, so there's an easy, convenient, and legally protected way for people to avoid the whole marriage pipeline
The only real fix we have for this is to just import more people, who knows whether that will pan out
In general though, I agree with the sentiment that for high earning men it's the shittiest deal imaginable and even the extreme option of dying alone is better
I know it's a thing in Canada, Australia, and Washington state (if you cohabitate for some number of years, they can claim that it's a "de-facto relationship" and get property division). Apparently the current UK government is trying to push it
i could have sworn that this would be the case in germany too. but it turns out that there are practically no rights or obligations on separation except child support. property division only happens if both partners made a significant contribution, eg to a house. so if you pay for half of the house you can assume shared ownership of that house, but you may have to fight for it in court. you have to pay child support because it is the right of the child, which exists regardless of the relationship of the parents. another exception is financial support from the government. for that the income of your unmarried partner will be considered if you live in the same household, but that is obviously not relevant on separation.
the keyword to look up is "Eheähnliche Gemeinschaft".
It used to be more spread out with a strong valley presence, but over the past couple years they've been force reloing people to Arkansas. It really started to ramp up at about the time I left
In my old org of 80ish, like half of them were from Telegana. All of management was from there. In total, at least 80% of the org was south asian. I guess it's just a coincidence ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. And I can promise you, at least half of them were completely useless. I mean, like so useless they couldn't even figure out how to use generics without 30 minutes of handholding
Also, WMT is not "in tech". Global tech is WITCH tier. The business side is run by the same type of MBA personality running Boeing
They're also forcing like half the company to move to Arkansas at the moment, so a bunch of people are trying to gtfo. I wouldn't advise anyone going there, startups are probably a better option
> and keeps doing crazy layoffs so they can buy more GPUs
They're doing layoffs and giving a wall street friendly reason for it
The media eats the shit up because it's run by a bunch of people who hate the tech industry
I guess it'll work until the market turns around and it forces them to shut up or bleed talent. Which could be around the corner since the R&D tax deduction is coming back, or if interest rates start dropping
My last company (F50, ass engineering culture, pretends to be a tech company) went and fired all of the juniors at a certain level because "AI"
The funny part is, most of those juniors were hired in 2022-2024, and they were better hires because of the harsher market. There were a bunch of "senior engineers" who were borderline useless and joined some time between 2018-2021
I just think it's kind of funny to fire the useful people and keep the more expensive ones around who try to do more "managerial" work and have more family obligations. Smart companies do the opposite
If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.
I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch