Edit: What I mean by this is there may be some circumstantial evidence (less hiring for juniors, more AI companies getting VC funding). We currently have no _hard_ evidence that programming has had a substantial speed increase/deskilling from LLMs yet. Any actual __science__ on this has yet to show this. But please, if you have _hard_ evidence on this topic I would love to see it.
Closest I guess is hiring of juniors is down, but it's possibly just due to a post COVID pullback being credited to AI.
I definitely think a lot of junior tasks are being replaced with AI, and companies are deciding it's not worth filling junior roles at least temporarily as a result.
I don’t think this is unique to software. Across the US over the past decades there’s been a massive contraction in companies being willing to “train-up” employees. It’s greedy, and it works for their bottom lines. But it’s a tragedy of the commons and a race to the bottom. It also explains the dearth of opportunities for getting into the trades, despite sky-high demand.
If anything, the expectations for an individual developer have never been higher, and now you’re not getting any 22-26 year olds with enough software experience to be anything but a drain on resources when the demand for profitability is yesterday.
Maybe we need to go back to ZIRP if only to get some juniors back on to the training schedule, across all industries.
For other insanely toxic and maladaptive training situations, also see: medicine in the US.
> I definitely think a lot of junior tasks are being replaced with AI
I think team expansion is being reduced as well. If you took a dev team of 5, armed them all with Claude Code + training on where to use it and where not to I think you could get the same productivity as hiring 2 additional FTE software devs. I'm assuming your existing 5 devs fully adopt the tool and not reject it like a bad organ transplant. Maybe an analogy could be the invention of email reducing the need for corporate typing pools and therefore fewer jr. secretaries ( typists) are hired.
/i'm just guessing that being a secretary is in the career progression path of someone in the typing pool but you get the idea.
edit: one thing i missed in my email analogy is that when email was invented it was free and available to anyone that could set up sendmail/*.MTA
> I definitely think a lot of junior tasks are being replaced with AI
one last thing to point out then my lunch is over. I think AI coding agents are going to hit services/marketplaces like Fiverr especially hard. I think the AI agents are the new gig-economy with respect to code, I spent about $50 on Claude Code pay-as-you-go over the past 3 days to put together a website i've had in the back of my mind for months. Claude Code got it to a point where I can easily pick up and run with to finish it out over a few more nights/weekends. UI/UX is especially tedious for me and Claude Code was able to take my vague descriptions and make the interface nicely organized and contemporary. The architecture is perfectly reasonable for what i want to do ( Auth0 + react + python(flask) + postgres + an OAuth2 integration to a third party ). It got all of that about 95% right on the first try.. for $50!. Services/marketplaces like Fiverr have to be thinking really hard right now.
With the Iran example, it's an interesting world we live in where the design of an emoji by some of the largest companies in the world can support or detract recognition of new states. Especially with some of these tech companies bending the knee to the current US administration I could imagine a world where there are executive orders to say, remove the Greenland flag, or change the design of the Venezuela flag.
You could even say that many foreigners are better informed about the US than US citizens are about the US, but that's not a high bar... I mean, 38% still approve of the current administration so that's already over one in three who don't understand the basic functioning of government or the economy.
I think foreigners tend to be better informed than the locals wherever you go.
As a baseline, they have experience living in about twice as many countries as the locals. They picked up their lives, often learned a second language, and established a home with minimal social support. They tend to be highly motivated people.
In many cases, they know more about the country than the locals do because they've traveled all over said country while the locals never left their home town.
edit: I just realized this might be confusing. By "foreigner" I mean someone who is from a place other than where they currently live. I'm not referring to people who only know about a country through hearsay.
Yeah, it took me a moment to clue in, but I think maybe "expat" is the more common term there.
In any case, I think it also applies to some degree to people who live outside the US just purely based on media diet. We all see clips of CNN and MSNBC and Fox on YouTube, but a person elsewhere will have the additional perspective of BBC, Al Jazeera, Le Monde, The Guardian, etc.
Of course. I think that communication is the key to a successful relationship.
However Henry Ford has a well known quote about what people think they want vs what they really want. For that matter, think about how you would answer a question about what you want, vs what you really value to experience in a relationship.
While this is generally good advice, it only works if you have women you're close with, at that level, already. If the only women you know are work colleagues, you can't go around asking them for advice on dating (depends on your relationship with them of course, but usually, not work appropriate).
My point being, maybe other things are foundational to building a romantic life upon. Not saying it is a must but building friendships with all sorts of people will generally help with many aspects of life
Nothing is bulletproof, but more hands-on moderation tends to be better at making pragmatic judgement calls when someone is being disruptive without breaking the letter of the law, or breaks the rules in ways that take non-trivial effort to prove. That approach can only scale so far though.
Essentially, gatekeeping. Places that are hard to access without the knowledge or special software, places that are invite-only, places that need special hardware...
Or places with a terminally uncool reputation. I'm still on Tumblr, and it's actually quite nice these days, mostly because "everyone knows" that Tumblr is passé, so all the clout-chasers, spammers and angry political discoursers abandoned it. It's nice living, under the radar.
Or a place that can influence a captive audience. Bots have been known to play a part in convincing people of one thing over another via the comments section. No direct money to be made there but shifting opinions can lead to sales, eventually. Or prevent sales for your competitors.
I don't think you actually watched the video? Nearly all of the criticism is about the myth creation around him with a short bit at the end mostly praising him as a person
Edit: What I mean by this is there may be some circumstantial evidence (less hiring for juniors, more AI companies getting VC funding). We currently have no _hard_ evidence that programming has had a substantial speed increase/deskilling from LLMs yet. Any actual __science__ on this has yet to show this. But please, if you have _hard_ evidence on this topic I would love to see it.
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