A recent discussion here regarding Uber's cost model has me curious about how many years it will be before driverless cars are not just viable, but commonplace.
Is there any general consensus on the figure, or are estimates all over the place?
I work in city technology in the US and the biggest barrier to entry is probably regulation over the technology itself. I suspect that 2017 will result in the tech being tightened up, 2018 will be proving and working through the safety stuff and some talk and early adopter implementation of regulation, in 2019 we'll probably see a few cities implement more autonomous transit solutions and in 2020/2021 I suspect we'll see a pretty wide adoption.
With exclusive roads, witihn 5 to 10 years. Without, 50 or maybe never. Imo we are nowhere near cars driven by buggy code. And there are no signs that of the opposite, only wishful thinking.
