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That's not the problem with predicting there's a bubble. The problem is that any such prediction automatically carries an implication of, "The bubble will pop soon." Unfortunately, timing bubbles is a tricky thing, and the market has a way of staying irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Numerous commentators correctly identified the tech. bubble of the '90s and the housing bubble of the 2000s. However, very few of those commentators were able to successfully time the popping of these two bubbles (and the ones that did make correct predictions may have got lucky).

For my part, I don't think another tech bubble has inflated. In the '90s there were numerous companies whose entire strategy revolved around making an unprofitable business model profitable with internet magic. I don't see as much of that today. But who knows? If advertising revenue declines sufficiently, even Google could be in trouble.



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