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The market is usually wrong, but it's very hard to know when it will stop being wrong in one direction and start being wrong in the other (as in the great depression say).


"The market is wrong but not in any way that's possible to make concrete predictions about ahead of time" and "the market is correct relative to available information" seem like functionally identical statements to me.

Unless you mean something stronger than "today's price usually isn't the same as next year's price after taking into account the discount rate" by "the market is usually wrong".


Just because you can't predict it in the short term doesn't make it correct or efficient in the short term, it is only correct in some sense in the very long term.




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