Don't forget to factor this breaking through to long term care facilities. From the last I looked at this, if it had not hit long term care, the number of deaths would have been low enough that it may have gone undetected longer. (In WA, 92% of the deaths are still folks over sixty! I don't know the numbers for how many of them were in long term care.)
Which is to say, you can't just look at the population death rate and really appreciate just how dangerous this is for older populations. The CFR for over sixty is a staggering 15% in WA. That is ridiculously high and completely masked if you look at all cases.
> Don't forget to factor this breaking through to long term care facilities.
If they're not taking any precautions (because there's no knowledge of the virus in the community) then it can spread to those types of facilities very easily. In New Zealand where only 1,500 people have have COVID-19 (likely to be very accurate, 200,000 tests have been conducted) there's already been two outbreaks in nursing homes.
Certainly. I am not implying that we should just let it run its course. Just as I would not let any disease we have a vaccine for loose in a nursing home without the vaccine.
I just think the total IFR actually undersells how dangerous this is.
I'm sure we would have noticed. I'm not sure we would have noticed as quickly. We certainly would not have tested to find that nearly a quarter of NYC could have it.
Yes, it can do damage and is very dangerous for an at risk group. No, we don't know who that is, yet. Age clearly proxies for a risk factor. But which one?
Unless you are wanting to claim that no children have gotten this. Which, seems highly unlikely. (Or is the risk whether it will provoke an immune response?)
Which is to say, you can't just look at the population death rate and really appreciate just how dangerous this is for older populations. The CFR for over sixty is a staggering 15% in WA. That is ridiculously high and completely masked if you look at all cases.