People really do need to zoom out a little bit. Yes, we may see negative or slow growth in some cities over the next couple years, but in 50 years? I would bet NYC, SF, and other big cities will be stronger than ever.

.. except there will probably be more pandemics within the next 50 years.

Given that we've had multiple localized epidemics or global pandemics in the last two decades alone (SARS, Ebola, Swine Flu/H1N1, etc), the likelihood of more seems increasingly high. Perhaps it doesn't even matter whether the next one will have a higher CFR; whether large cities prosper depends not only on whether people believe it will, but also on how well the cities do in many other respects, such as crime, taxes, pollution, trash, homelessness, etc. SF is not only suffering because of the pandemic: the pandemic just put an extra sense of urgency on the snowball effect that was already happening.

When cities are safe, healthy, clean and beautiful, they're great and everyone is happy to live there, but now? Not so much.

Are suburbs any different? I’ve visited at least a dozen suburban areas during the current pandemic and they are all as equally affected by the pandemic as cities are.

It’s important to note also that sanitation, preparedness, and scientific knowledge will all continue to improve over time. Pandemics may become more common but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be as deadly or effective as the current one.

How much of that history includes jobs that can be done remotely? I'd say that's a significant change for certain cities that have a significant such workforce.

Agreed. What has happened in the last 75 years is historically new:

1. The growth of information/knowledge (the Information Age) jobs, which are now the majority of all jobs in the U.S.

2. The growth of remote work tools (the jury is out on how productive people are remotely at the moment, but new tech will drive this soon so that you will be just as or almost as effective in your kitchen or local coffee shop)

3. The growth of global transportation (the Jet Age) that allows previously localized diseases to spread globally in hours, instead of months or years

These factors are new and together likely presage a historic shift in how and where people work.

Ironically, except for this market adjustment in larger cities, the ability for people to work productively in other locations will put continuing downward pressure on the cost of living in cities as people leave, and probably hit some sort of equilibrium at some point soon.

... all this to mean that you should sell your investment properties in the Tenderloin ;)

I would argue that high paying jobs are a big driver of cities and never in human history have people had the ability to work in high paying jobs outside of big cities like we do now. The ability to effectively work remotely is largely dependent on job duties and IT in general can work remotely with little productivity loss. Hence the bay area getting hit harder than most.

To me the question is whether companies/employees will continue letting/wanting to work remotely in the future. I am certainly not concerned about a population collapse in big cities because many companies and people want to live there and don't because of cost.