Skepticism? I'm not "skeptical" about SpinLaunch. I'm incredulous about SpinLaunch. Skeptical implies that I think there might be a chance, if certain criticisms are addressed. No, I am certain there is no chance SpinLaunch will end up being a thing.
First of all, putting aside the several red-flags for why this looks like a scam, and assuming it's actually do-able, it's still not going to happen. The global space industry is built on rockets. At best, stuff like this--even if it does work--gets a "cute project, kid" pat on the back and then ignored. When was the last time any fundamental redesign of an existing technology take over an industry? It just doesn't happen.
And I think everyone involved probably knows that. You're not going to compete against Google as a scrappy startup trying to make a search engine. You're not going to compete against SpaceX as a scrappy startup trying to make alternative launch systems. Somebody, somewhere, has to understand that. So they have to be in on the scam.
Now, as for the actual idea, there are several problems. First and foremost is: energy is energy. If this thing fails, it blows up just as bad as a chemical rocket on the platform.
At least chemical rockets are based on decades-old materials science. This spinning arm malarky expects us to believe that they can support 10,000x their payload on the arm and be able to release it on a hair trigger? I suppose next they're going to tell us the arm is made of carbon nanotubes or some other unobtanium.
So they want to spin the object in a vacuum. How are they going to seal the spin chamber in such a way that they can generate a significant vacuum while also allowing the payload to escape? They show a paper or some other thin membrane door over the escape hatch that the payload punches through. OK, that means that door needs to be able to support 13.75 pounds per square inch of atmosphere. A 2m x 2m door needs to be able to hold up over 40 tons of atmosphere. The payload needs to punch through a door that is holding up over 40 tons of atmosphere. That payload needs to punch into a 40 ton column of atmosphere. At ~5,000 mph?!
So what I expect to happen is that the payload hits the column of air, creates a mach shockwave that destroys all of the windows in a 5 mile radius, while the rush of air into the chamber and clapping back around the tunnel of vaccum the payload creates blinding spike of plasma (not unlike lightning), that ends up destroying the launch chamber.
Oh, yes, there are "challenges" to "figure out". From their launch command center that was clearly designed for aesthetics more than functionality. Lots of problem solving gonna happen there.
You may or may not have a point, but your entire "argument" is the "argument from incredulity" fallacy and not any actual reasoning.
For example: arguing about "paper" strength to resist air pressure vs vacuum and throwing around numbers like "40 tons" isn't based on any actual materials science. The burst pressure strength for pretty standard office paper is 250 - 300 kPa. Atmospheric pressure at sea level is 101 kPa. So right off the bat, you've multiplied a bunch of numbers together and come up with the wrong answer: the paper I buy from the stationary store is 2-3 times strong enough to resist atmospheric pressure against a vacuum.
Now of course, at a suitably large dimensionality, we have to worry about fiber strength loading etc. but this has so many solutions it's absurd - i.e. 2 sheets of paper with fibers perpendicular for strength, a plastic backer for air permeability, and then weaving strengthening fibers into a grid - remembering that the burst strength is quite different to the resistance to piercing forces (i.e. kevlar will stop a bullet but not a knife).
First of all, putting aside the several red-flags for why this looks like a scam, and assuming it's actually do-able, it's still not going to happen. The global space industry is built on rockets. At best, stuff like this--even if it does work--gets a "cute project, kid" pat on the back and then ignored. When was the last time any fundamental redesign of an existing technology take over an industry? It just doesn't happen.
And I think everyone involved probably knows that. You're not going to compete against Google as a scrappy startup trying to make a search engine. You're not going to compete against SpaceX as a scrappy startup trying to make alternative launch systems. Somebody, somewhere, has to understand that. So they have to be in on the scam.
Now, as for the actual idea, there are several problems. First and foremost is: energy is energy. If this thing fails, it blows up just as bad as a chemical rocket on the platform.
At least chemical rockets are based on decades-old materials science. This spinning arm malarky expects us to believe that they can support 10,000x their payload on the arm and be able to release it on a hair trigger? I suppose next they're going to tell us the arm is made of carbon nanotubes or some other unobtanium.
So they want to spin the object in a vacuum. How are they going to seal the spin chamber in such a way that they can generate a significant vacuum while also allowing the payload to escape? They show a paper or some other thin membrane door over the escape hatch that the payload punches through. OK, that means that door needs to be able to support 13.75 pounds per square inch of atmosphere. A 2m x 2m door needs to be able to hold up over 40 tons of atmosphere. The payload needs to punch through a door that is holding up over 40 tons of atmosphere. That payload needs to punch into a 40 ton column of atmosphere. At ~5,000 mph?!
So what I expect to happen is that the payload hits the column of air, creates a mach shockwave that destroys all of the windows in a 5 mile radius, while the rush of air into the chamber and clapping back around the tunnel of vaccum the payload creates blinding spike of plasma (not unlike lightning), that ends up destroying the launch chamber.
Oh, yes, there are "challenges" to "figure out". From their launch command center that was clearly designed for aesthetics more than functionality. Lots of problem solving gonna happen there.