> Reddit might be great; but if everyone knows about it, then the price is going to reflect that already.
I think that's the wrong way to look at stocks. What you're describing goes along with the common belief that all known information is already "priced in". This is silly.
The price of a stock reflects the consensus/average estimation of the worth of the company. Your personal assessment is going to depend on what you personally believe in, but you could be holding a minority viewpoint. If 95% of investors believe that a company will have 10B in revenue in 5 years, but you interpret the facts differently and believe (correctly) that the company will make 50B in 5 years, then even though you are basing your estimation on the same facts as everyone else, if the majority interprets the facts incorrectly, then the information is not "priced in". As the company proves itself successful, the consensus estimate will shift. People will reassess their belief that certain outcomes are more or less likely. What matters isn't necessarily having information that other investors don't have, it's interpreting that information better than others, and making more accurate inferences.
When it comes to reddit, more specifically, you probably don't have access to any more information than every analyst on wall street, but there's a key difference, which is that most of these people probably have never used reddit, and have a very limited understanding of how it works or its potential. So, in some ways, your understanding of the functioning of reddit, as a reddit user, could actually give you an edge.
> but there's a key difference, which is that most of these people probably have never used reddit, and have a very limited understanding of how it works or its potential.
I think that's the wrong way to look at stocks. What you're describing goes along with the common belief that all known information is already "priced in". This is silly.
The price of a stock reflects the consensus/average estimation of the worth of the company. Your personal assessment is going to depend on what you personally believe in, but you could be holding a minority viewpoint. If 95% of investors believe that a company will have 10B in revenue in 5 years, but you interpret the facts differently and believe (correctly) that the company will make 50B in 5 years, then even though you are basing your estimation on the same facts as everyone else, if the majority interprets the facts incorrectly, then the information is not "priced in". As the company proves itself successful, the consensus estimate will shift. People will reassess their belief that certain outcomes are more or less likely. What matters isn't necessarily having information that other investors don't have, it's interpreting that information better than others, and making more accurate inferences.
When it comes to reddit, more specifically, you probably don't have access to any more information than every analyst on wall street, but there's a key difference, which is that most of these people probably have never used reddit, and have a very limited understanding of how it works or its potential. So, in some ways, your understanding of the functioning of reddit, as a reddit user, could actually give you an edge.