Dreamland. Putin is a deranged murderer and he has so far good support (or they are just scared shitless) in duma and enforcement. Right now they're putting protesters in jail because there are relatively few. If protesters follow former US ambassador's Michael McFaul's advise (I think dumb one) and show up in hundreds of thousands the shooting will start and it might provoke him to press that red button.
The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.
Putin is a corrupt murderer but I've seen very little to suggest that he's deranged or otherwise insane. And depending on how firm the west is about sticking to sanctions (i.e. will Europe quietly roll them back after gas prices spike?) his choice to invade Ukraine may even be a smart move for him from a geopolitical perspective.
Europe isn't going to roll back anything, they can move to US, Mexico, Venezuela, Middle East gas sources although it will be painful. They are not going to enrich the guy who is trying to reconquer Europe. Germany will start spending a bunch more on their military now as well as Russia is a traditional enemy.
The west has area areas when it comes to the U.N. Charter, but Putin has gone way over the line to exactly why the U.N. founded to prevent. The west will stick to the multilateral system until nukes drop, and will sooner close the Russian oil and gas spigot entirely than abandon it.
Cutting off 50% of the flow by my reading translates into around $150 per barrel oil which is in the realm of $7/gallon gas at the pump. Europeans pay on average $7-8/gallon for a long time. Cutting it off entirely? Someone else will have a better idea if that could be in the range of $10/gallon or $20. Of course it will cause problems. Folks might decide in a couple years they like cheap gas more, and then end up in another world war with even higher prices anyway just because they have no imagination about what a completely stupid move this was from a geopolitical perspective.
The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.