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You sure? In the long term, like that an academic like Hawking probably had in mind, population definitely has been increasing exponentially: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth first chart.

The population is "set to level off"? How are you certain Or not:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population first chart.

Estimates vary. But you can't be any more certain that our numbers will start to decline any moreso than Hawking is that they we'll continue to multiply.



The first derivative is important here. Look at the chart labeled "growth rate of world population".




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