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People in their twenties have an annual chance of dying of about one in a thousand, so effective anti-aging would give an expected lifespan of about a thousand years.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Based on the rates of various types of accidental deaths, you could extend that quite a bit by avoiding dangerous drugs and and living in an area where you're unlikely to get shot. If we figure out really safe self-driving cars, that'll make a big difference too. In much of Europe you can already get the same effect by taking public transport everywhere. Air travel is quite unlikely to kill you.

https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...

Put all that together and a 10,000-year expected lifespan looks pretty achievable.



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