CATL's and BYD's sodium ion batteries are appearing already. Cars are on sale in China and you can buy the cells on AliExpress. Those are about €50 a KWH for similar density which compares favourably to Li-on at over $100 and LiPho at $130.
Next generation batteries from their competitors are already hitting the market and the new Li-on is expected next year with double capacity which will match Toyota's stated battery and CATL are unlikely to be lying. Toyota has been talking about this since 2017 and nothing has been shown so far, whereas CATL have shown the tech off.
This coming year looks like it's finally the year when all the promises of new battery technology actually happens in volume.
Based on articles I read in trade mags via my work email is that battery manufacturers suspect that with careful design and thermal management a lightly used automotive battery could have a 20-40 year service life.
I think people have a disbelief that there have been large improvements in battery lifespan in the last 20 years when there absolutely has been. Modern ion batteries aren't just 20 year old ones but cheaper. Degradation and charge discharge rates are substantially better.
Just search sodium ion on AliExpress and you will get all sorts from 18650s andmother sizes as well as pouch batteries in various quantities. The voltage curve on them is really extreme compared to Li-on, should make estimating SOC very reliable.
Next generation batteries from their competitors are already hitting the market and the new Li-on is expected next year with double capacity which will match Toyota's stated battery and CATL are unlikely to be lying. Toyota has been talking about this since 2017 and nothing has been shown so far, whereas CATL have shown the tech off.
This coming year looks like it's finally the year when all the promises of new battery technology actually happens in volume.