A big problem with this prediction of the imminent decline and fall of paper is that it seems to neglect the fact that paper is soooooooo cheap. Also comes with many affordances, sure, but it is so cheap. That makes it easy to use for one-off notes, and it makes it easy to use lots of pieces of paper at the same time. In contrast, although a laptop or tablet or smartphone is capable of holding many more documents than would be convenient to carry in a stack of papers, it has a hard time displaying them all at the same time as is nearly trivial with paper.
For instance: when giving certain sorts of exams (or other assignments), you want the students to be able to have a reference sheet (for notation, formulas, vocabulary, whatever) plus the sheet with the question/problem/assignment on it, plus the sheet they're actually writing their answer on. The same thing on even a large desktop screen will involve a moderate amount of window swapping (and, as a result, cognitive context-switching).
Even just for reading textbooks and technical material, only the larger desktop monitors come close to replicating the amount of real estate available in a two-page spread.
I think a lot of the technical issues are likely to be solved in a relatively short time, as the author suggests. But I'm pretty sure the incredible cheapness of paper (compared to anything electronic) will keep it in business for many years to come.
While programming I love scribbling down notes and ideas on a notepad. There is something about the change in mindset or context from screen and keyboard to pen and paper that helps me see the whole picture of what I am working on, or even just get a thought out of my head temporarily to be able to stay on the current task. Does anyone else do this, and have you found any piece of technology to replace that?
While that's great, your scribbling on paper while coding can't sustain the enormous empires that were built up around the sale of paper. Things like books and corporate purchases are what did that. And if even just 90% of paper usage is eliminated in those contexts, you'll see those empires come crashing down.
What would happen to the price of paper if suddenly demand is decimated like that? If the price of light paper goods increases dramatically, I predict that consumers will increasingly adopt new note-taking/scribbling solutions (like and iPad app). After one new generation of people grows up accustomed to accomplishing all of their formerly paper-based tasks digitally (even simple tasks like doodling), I believe that paper will truly be a fixture of the past.
I have a real desire for a ~ 8.5x11 (or A4, it doesn't really matter I guess) size whiteboard built into my desk right in front of my keyboard. That could probably replace paper for 95% of my ideas. If they could come out with a finer tipped marker, I would be in heaven.
I think the key idea you've hit on is that paper is relatively permanent, even when we don't need it to be. For lots of moderate term stuff, it could easily be replaced if only it weren't quite as cheap.
I wonder if at some point we'll bypass the issue entirely with spatially-aware LCD glasses. Want to visualize some data? Just draw it in the air, and move it wherever is convenient.
I wonder if having multiple tablets so that we didn't have to switch apps so much to take notes would render paper obsolete.
Where does the assumption that we mostly use paper to take "notes" from things we read in other computer media come from?
Imagine a student with three tablets open side by side, one in a note app, one in a textbook app and a third one for other apps.
And why not imagine just one tablet with note-taking integrated or a way to switch between apps momentarily?
It's not like you don't already divert your eyes and attention from the physical book to the paper you take notes in in order to take a note. So, why have two tablets?
Also why the third tablet? If the student is studying some textbook and keeping notes, why would he have other apps open? So he could destroy his attention span?
What would solve a lot of my problems with paper and current electronic solutions:
Imagine some kind of touch mirasol with a matte screen and very thin body. You have a mode available where you can write on it with a stylus and can easily erase using your finger.
As you write, you get instantaneous updates that simply show your handwriting, making it look very similar to if you had written it on paper.
Certain motions also exist, however, to "neaten" a region of your notes (change them into a form that, though not a font, is better aligned and more readable) or to convert it outright to computer readable characters. Other versions could add syntax highlighting or other use-specific features.
Options like automatic saving, simultaneous editing, or projecting your notes are available.
How difficult is this with current technology? Would current generation e-ink work?
Edited to add: folding is also key, though obviously not now ready for primetime.
The Newton had the handwriting recognition that was decent (kind of, if you printed and trained the unit enough) and it could convert a written word to computer text as you wrote. You could also just write and later on convert everything to text.
The same applied to diagrams as well. Draw a sloppy box, and the Newton could clean it up for you, turning it into a vector image.
Everything was automatically saved---there was no "desktop" or "files" on the Newton (in many ways, it's the proto iPod/iPhone). What you are asking for is possible with today's technology, except for the folding bit.
I'm sure if someone started working on it now, the technology would be ready in time, if it isn't already. It seems to me like the hardest part is getting the body thin enough (though Kindles are pretty thin now), and maybe refreshing fast enough that writing doesn't feel weird.
By folding, do you mean you want to be able to fold up the device?
Yeah. One of the great advantages of tree paper is flexibility and durability. I don't need to carry around a case to have a piece of paper to write on.
Sure, with tree paper it's annoying to have a fold in the paper, but even that problem is solved when you use the kind of e-paper I'm imagining. Not an absolute necessity, but something about having the ability to physically manipulate the dimensions of what you're using is just so useful. Don't need to use the entire screen? Fold it in half, and you're set.
> Sure, with tree paper it's annoying to have a fold in the paper, but even that problem is solved when you use the kind of e-paper I'm imagining.
Meaning it resists permanent creases, or has actual hinges?
Anyway, I'm totally with you. I'm still waiting for flexible computers. For some reason I keep seeing a pot-holder form factor; I must have been messing with one when I was thinking about this a while ago.
Instead of using a stylus to write text perhaps invent a grid of letters; when you tap a letter it appears on the screen. I wonder if it would ever take off?
How strange: "Empire" in the subsection heading "The Decline and Fall of the Paper Empire" links to http://www.forbes.com/companies/empire/ for no apparent reason. Perhaps an autolinker run amok?
But it's only a matter of time before pens become just as convenient on a computer, with the added benefit of being able to store, copy, index, etc your notes.
For instance: when giving certain sorts of exams (or other assignments), you want the students to be able to have a reference sheet (for notation, formulas, vocabulary, whatever) plus the sheet with the question/problem/assignment on it, plus the sheet they're actually writing their answer on. The same thing on even a large desktop screen will involve a moderate amount of window swapping (and, as a result, cognitive context-switching).
Even just for reading textbooks and technical material, only the larger desktop monitors come close to replicating the amount of real estate available in a two-page spread.
I think a lot of the technical issues are likely to be solved in a relatively short time, as the author suggests. But I'm pretty sure the incredible cheapness of paper (compared to anything electronic) will keep it in business for many years to come.