You are mostly right. I am freeloading on Ars. But I don't see how my subscribing to them would make them abandon the ad-based subsidized access. They would just keep both models. If they announced they were getting rid of the ad-based model and just stick with regular subscriptions, I would subscribe in a second.

I know that my proposition is not perfect, and if I got my way I would be forcing my will onto other people (the ones who would be okay with ads in exchange of free access) but it's the best that I can come up with.