Why the doom and gloom? It's going to hurt those who jumped on the bandwagon hoping to cash out. I couldn't care less about them, but I would like for computer hardware to be affordable again, and for the tech job market to go back to normal.
Though I'm more concerned about the effects of the current political climate, than the "AI" bubble popping. In the scenario of that going south, nothing will be normal for a long time.
True, but a better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash.
This time around the ramifications might be larger, but it will still mostly be felt by those inside the bubble.
Personally, I would rather experience a slight discomfort from the crash followed by a normalization of hardware prices and the job market, than continue bearing the current insanity.
> better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash.
That's because the companies were largely public. In the dotcom era, the exit for startups was to IPO, as early as possible. When someone like pets.com was burning through cash with zero path to profitability, it was public knowledge, everyone could see it.
The AI built out is largely funded with private credit. It's a black box, we have no idea of true valuations. The mean time for a company to go public went from 4 years during dotcom to 14 years now. The rot can be hidden for a long time until the big funds go bust, with all the collateral damage that brings.
The C-levels who jumped on the bandwagon are definitely not going to fall on their swords should it go south. They’ll blame the tech, fire some subordinates, suggest their customers for “not understanding it”, and their shareholders will eat it up as long as they get a pound of flesh.
> suggest their customers for “not understanding it”
See Microsoft's recent "We don't understand how you all are not impressed by AI."
In the case of MS, you're right, Satya isn't going to fall on his own sword. They will just continue to bundle and raise prices, make it impossible to buy anything else (because you still need the other tools) and then pitch that to shareholders as success "Look how many people buy Copilot (even though it's forcefully bundled into every offering we sell("
They’ll just move on to the next company that will hire them with a golden parachute.
There’s minimal risk to the decision makers. Meanwhile, every one of us peons is significantly more at risk of losing our jobs whether we could be effectively replaced with these AI tools or not because our own C-level execs decided to drink the snake oil that is the current bubble.
Everyone is a decision maker. Don't let your perceived lack of impact discourage you. For instance, I help my community by feeding them. It's small, but powerful.
Though I'm more concerned about the effects of the current political climate, than the "AI" bubble popping. In the scenario of that going south, nothing will be normal for a long time.