That doesn’t mean manufacturing is down, if new output is automated.

The trade deficit is shrinking, and which necessarily means there is more domestic flow as foreign hoards of dollars are liquidated. That flow has to go somewhere.

Could be straight to the tax cuts of course.

> That doesn’t mean manufacturing is down, if new output is automated.

You are correct. Of course, if new output is automated, then the purported goal of the tariffs (more manufacturing jobs!) is defeated.

The fact that any new manufacturing will of course be automated shows how little thought went into designing these tariffs and how transparently false the administration's promises are.

> The trade deficit is shrinking

This is totally irrelevant. The size of the trade deficit does is a red herring.

The trade deficit is shrinking because fewer goods are being imported. Producing countries are finding alternate markets that are outside of the US' punitive tariffing.

Perhaps because the inputs to domestic manufacturing are currently more expensive. Actually increasing manufacturing capacity first requires construction and capital expenditure. I'm not sure how those metrics are doing.

> domestic manufacturing are currently more expensive

Because factory machines and raw materials are being tariffed. Also because a source of cheap labor (immigrants) is being excised.

> Actually increasing manufacturing capacity first requires construction and capital expenditure.

It certainly does. And companies are rightfully hesitant to invest, because the legally dubious basis for the tariffs may not survive this month, much less into the next administration.

There are a lot of people in this thread that sound certain there will be a meaningful next administration.

Yet history teaches us that the sort of people this administration consists of never relinquish power without a fight.