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In the long run we are all dead. And all companies go bankrupt.

Aggregated numbers do not tell the whole story.

If smartphones mature to good enough and people shift to slower upgrade cycles (think 2006-7 in PC terms) then apple will have trouble growing. And in our quarterly reports world growth is what counts. Which is already hard when you have the revenue of a couple of countries. And there are not many people that can afford to pay the apple premiums and are not already paying them.

For me the interesting stuff is what is the breakdown of the sales. If the majority of these 9 millions are iPhone 4/S users that switch it can mean one thing, if 6 of those 9 million units are new customers is another story.

We work in industry where the rise and falls of titans is rapid. I will be equally unsurprised if in 5 years Apple still have amazing performance or they are on the brink of bankruptcy.

Apple have some structural problems that they need to address to stay on top - the lack of Steve Jobs (mostly as a perception thing for the products), the store, how to reach to new users that are poorer and protect the margins and the perception of premium-ness of their brand, deal with the growing share of Android etc. None of them are unsolvable but combined they are a challenge.



In the long run we are all dead. And all companies go bankrupt.

Interesting to ponder which happens first...




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