Not so different from Apple in the late 90s. And it kept struggling to find its stride until the iPhone. Let's have some context.
1993, Apple Newton
1994, IBM Simon
1996, PalmPilot/PalmOS
1996, Apple Pippin game console
1998, iMac
1998-2000, tons of MP3 players
2000, Microsoft Pocket PC/Windows CE
2001, Microsoft's tablet PCs
2001, iPod
2001, OS X
2002, Pocket PC smartphones
2002, BlackBerry
(I included a few flops to show that this wasn't a God-given destiny but an iterative search process...)
So as of 2004:
* PDAs are an established market but mostly limited to business. The functionality will only take off in smartphones, which are really just PDA-phones
* iPod has gobbled up the pre-existing MP3 player market in a way that prefigures iPhone, with a decent device and very good marketing
* Smartphones are just getting taken up in 2004, as an outgrowth of the PDA market. It'll be 5 years before iPhone hits a pre-existing smartphone market with a decent device, very good marketing and "app store"
* Tablet PCs are bombing, largely because nobody understands or wants the form factor yet
Near future after 2004: transition to Intel 2005-2007ish, MacBook Pro and MacBook 2006, iPhone 2007, Android 2007, MacBook Air 2008, iPad 2010.
and consider the contribution of economic downturns/booms to the timing of products which did well
1993, Apple Newton
1994, IBM Simon
1996, PalmPilot/PalmOS
1996, Apple Pippin game console
1998, iMac
1998-2000, tons of MP3 players
2000, Microsoft Pocket PC/Windows CE
2001, Microsoft's tablet PCs
2001, iPod
2001, OS X
2002, Pocket PC smartphones
2002, BlackBerry
(I included a few flops to show that this wasn't a God-given destiny but an iterative search process...)
So as of 2004:
* PDAs are an established market but mostly limited to business. The functionality will only take off in smartphones, which are really just PDA-phones
* iPod has gobbled up the pre-existing MP3 player market in a way that prefigures iPhone, with a decent device and very good marketing
* Smartphones are just getting taken up in 2004, as an outgrowth of the PDA market. It'll be 5 years before iPhone hits a pre-existing smartphone market with a decent device, very good marketing and "app store"
* Tablet PCs are bombing, largely because nobody understands or wants the form factor yet
Near future after 2004: transition to Intel 2005-2007ish, MacBook Pro and MacBook 2006, iPhone 2007, Android 2007, MacBook Air 2008, iPad 2010.
and consider the contribution of economic downturns/booms to the timing of products which did well