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I would argue that it's generally a massive failure, and that history will view these models as extremely naive when it comes to judging risk.

Comparing it to Newtonian mechanics is unfair. Newtonian mechanics actually work, just not for everything. To have a risk model that doesn't work for risk is something completely different.



There are lots of reasons why Black-Sholes doesn't work. Also lots of reasons why incentive problems cause people to misuse financial models. But that doesn't change the reality that our lives are dramatically changed as a result of them.




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