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China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions (mpettis.com)
16 points by mooreds on July 31, 2015 | hide | past | favorite | 3 comments


Great article. I'm curious if peeps in North America are actively considering trading the situation in China.

What surprised me is when I looked into the implied volatility on FXI, the ETF for US market to look to trade large caps in China is only at 27%.

To put things in perspective, S&P500 Index implied volatility is at 10%. Google's IV is at 21%. Tesla Motors's IV is at 45%. Very weird when I expect the down-swings in China would put the IV at a much higher level.

So my thesis is that the IV on Chinese market is undervalued relative to SPY, buying a straddle on FXI (long vol in China) and selling a strangle/calendar on SPY IMO (short vol in US) is IMO a viable idea.

Curious if any peeps have any other ideas?


While I think your analysis is poignant, I am befuddled by your use of the colloquialism "peeps."

I note that the FXI statistic isn't that surprising -- the hardest-hit Chinese stocks were small- and mid-cap. FXI tracks large-caps, which were not quite as affected.


Would the relatively low volatility of FXI have anything to do with the fact that the index is only 50 large cap stocks?




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